Assessment of time-variant reliability of high-temperature rotating structure by CD-DT interference incorporating adaptive surrogate model

Hang-Hang Gu; Yuan-Ze Tang; Xinyu Yang; Run-Zi Wang; Xian-Cheng Zhang

doi:10.1088/3050-2454/ae524d

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Assessment of time-variant reliability of high-temperature rotating structure by CD-DT interference incorporating adaptive surrogate model

Papers | 更新时间：2026-04-14

- Assessment of time-variant reliability of high-temperature rotating structure by CD-DT interference incorporating adaptive surrogate model
- 基于CD-DT干涉法及自适应代理模型的高温旋转结构时变可靠性评估
- Journal of Reliability Science and Engineering Pages: 1-16(2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  Key Laboratory of Pressure Systems and Safety, Ministry of Education, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237, People's Republic of China
  Institute of High Performance Computing (IHPC), Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR), 1 Fusionopolis Way, #16-16 Connexis, Singapore 138632, Singapore
  Advanced Institute for Materials Research (WPI-AIMR), Tohoku University, Sendai 9808577, Japan
  Department of Materials Processing, Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku University, Sendai 9808579, Japan
- 作者简介：
  
  [ "Hang-Hang Gu is currently a PhD candidate at the School of Mechanical and Power Engineering, East China University of Science and Technology. His research interests include damage-driven reliability assessment and life management." ]
  [ "Yuan-Ze Tang is currently a PhD candidate at the School of Mechanical and Power Engineering, East China University of Science and Technology. His research focuses on reliability assessment and life prediction of high-temperature components, with emphasis on data-physics hybrid modeling, uncertainty propagation, and machine learning-assisted reliability analysis for complex engineering systems." ]
  [ "Xin-Yu Yang is a research scientist at Institute of High Performance Computing (IHPC), Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A* STAR), Singapore, with research interests in physics foundation models and agentic AI systems for scientific discovery." ]
  [ "Run-Zi Wang is currently an Assistant Professor at the Advanced Institute for Materials Research (WPI-AIMR), Tohoku University, Japan. His research spans from modelling-driven material strength analysis to informatics-reinforced structural integrity assessment." ]
  [ "Professor Xian-Cheng Zhang is currently the dean of School of Mechanical and Power Engineering, East China University of Science and Technology. He is devoted to the fundamental research and technical assistance to guarantee the long-term and reliable operation of high-temperature components." ]
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.1088/3050-2454/ae524d
  CLC：
- Received：30 December 2025，
  
  Revised：2026-02-28，
  
  Accepted：15 March 2026，
  
  Online First：31 March 2026，
  
  Published：2026-06
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
Hang-Hang Gu, Yuan-Ze Tang, Xinyu Yang, et al. 基于CD-DT干涉法及自适应代理模型的高温旋转结构时变可靠性评估[J]. 可靠性科学与工程学报（英文）, 2026, 2: 025101.

Hang-Hang Gu, Yuan-Ze Tang, Xinyu Yang, et al. Assessment of time-variant reliability of high-temperature rotating structure by CD-DT interference incorporating adaptive surrogate model[J]. Journal of Reliability Science and Engineering, 2026, 2: 025101.
Hang-Hang Gu, Yuan-Ze Tang, Xinyu Yang, et al. 基于CD-DT干涉法及自适应代理模型的高温旋转结构时变可靠性评估[J]. 可靠性科学与工程学报（英文）, 2026, 2: 025101. DOI： 10.1088/3050-2454/ae524d.

Hang-Hang Gu, Yuan-Ze Tang, Xinyu Yang, et al. Assessment of time-variant reliability of high-temperature rotating structure by CD-DT interference incorporating adaptive surrogate model[J]. Journal of Reliability Science and Engineering, 2026, 2: 025101. DOI： 10.1088/3050-2454/ae524d.

摘要

高温旋转结构（HTRSs）是工业领域中的关键部件，其在严苛工况下运行并导致不可预测的失效行为。这些失效由材料属性、载荷条件及几何变异性中的不确定性共同引发。本研究提出一个稳健的计算框架，用于评估多源不确定性下HTRS的概率损伤累积（PDAs）及系统级可靠性。该框架考虑了基本随机变量（RVs）在空间与时间尺度上的概率特性，用于分析不同工况下的PDA，并基于累积损伤-损伤阈值干涉准则评估结构可靠性。随后构建了一种自适应代理模型，用以逼近损伤与RVs复杂的非线性关系，从而确保仿真的高效性与准确性。数值算例验证了所提方法的高效性与精确性，并将其进一步应用于考虑多源不确定性的涡轮盘分析。所提方法在保持系统可靠性预测的高精度的同时显著提升了计算效率，为面向损伤驱动的可靠性评估向上拓展至系统级应用提供了新的见解。

Abstract

High-temperature rotating structures (HTRSs) are essential components in industries

operating under severe conditions that lead to unpredictable failure behaviors. These failures are driven by uncertainties in material properties

loading conditions

and geometric variations. This study proposes a robust computational framework for assessing probabilistic damage accumulations (PDAs) and system-level reliability of HTRS under multi-source uncertainties. The probabilistic properties of basic random variables (RVs) in spatial and temporal scale are accounted

which are used to analyze PDA across different scenarios and reliability is assessed using the cumulative damage–damage threshold interference criterion. An adaptive surrogate model is then developed to approximate the complex

nonlinear relationship between damage and RVs

ensuring efficient and accurate simulations. Numerical case studies demonstrate the high efficiency and precision of the proposed method

which is further applied to a turbine disk considering multi-source uncertainties. The proposed method significantly improves computational efficiency while maintaining high accuracy in predicting system reliability

providing new insights in the damage-driven reliability assessment upward to system-level applications.

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