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      Li Shuaiwei, Wu Zeping, Jia Junkai, Tian Lei, Wang Tianci, Zhang Jie

      当前状态： 一校优先
      DOI：10.1088/3050-2454/aea09c
      摘要：Uncertainties arising from control deviations, geometric deviations, and propellant property deviations during the design, manufacturing, and operation of solid divert control motors (SDCMs) cause the thrust output to deviate from its nominal value, thereby affecting the strike accuracy of kinetic interceptors. To quantitatively evaluate the influence of these uncertainties on strike accuracy, an integrated internal-external ballistic dynamic model of the SDCM is established. Based on this model, a performance dispersion analysis method for the integrated internal-external ballistics is proposed using polynomial chaos expansions. The effects of control deviations, geometric deviations, and propellant property uncertainties on the miss distance are systematically analyzed, and Sobol' sensitivity analysis is performed to quantify the contribution of each uncertain parameter to the variability of the miss distance. The quantitative evaluation of uncertainty effects provides valuable guidance for the optimal design of SDCMs.  
      关键词：solid divert control motor;strike accuracy;polynomial chaos expansion;dispersion analysis;uncertainty quantification;Sobol' sensitivity analysis   
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      更新时间：2026-09-30
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